Robert Abela’s turbulent summer is proving to be a pivotal moment for his leadership, with the latest opinion polls pointing to what could be a historic defeat for the Labour Party (PL) in the next general election. The MaltaToday poll, published today, reveals a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Nationalist Party (PN) now leading Labour by over 11,000 votes—a result that is expected to send shockwaves through PL ranks and deepen internal unrest.
Labour’s Declining Support: Poll Data Reveals Growing Crisis
According to the MaltaToday survey, the PN now commands 48.2% of the electorate’s support, while Labour has dropped to 43.8%. This is a marked decline for a party that once seemed unstoppable. A key concern for Labour is its lower voter retention—just 69% of its 2022 supporters remain loyal, compared to the PN’s 81%. Meanwhile, a rising rate of abstention among PL voters is compounding the party’s woes.
While these results technically fall within the margin of error, the fact that Labour is behind at all is likely to trigger panic within the party. Recent electoral results in the June 2024 European Parliament and local council elections had already signaled a dangerous trend. Now, Labour appears to be losing the support of its core base, further eroding its chances in the next general election.
Internal Dissent: Abela’s Leadership and Declining Grip on Power
The latest polling numbers are likely to increase pressure on Abela, whose leadership is already being questioned by senior figures within the PL. Sources close to the party suggest that Abela’s removal of Randolph Debattista as Labour Party CEO—an event forced upon him by individuals close to former Prime Minister Joseph Muscat—was a first sign of Abela’s weakening hold on party structures. This move, orchestrated by Muscat’s loyalists, was seen as a rebuke to Abela’s leadership style and an attempt to reassert control over the party by Muscat’s faction.
Debattista’s ousting came as part of a broader reshuffle following Labour’s poor performance in the European elections, but insiders claim it highlighted Abela’s struggle to maintain control over Labour’s internal apparatus. His removal—accompanied by whispers of Muscat’s influence—was a symbolic blow to Abela’s authority, and ultimately resulted in the replacement of the PL leadership structure (Abela excluded) at this month’s party general conference. This has only fuelled speculation that Muscat’s camp remains a powerful force within the PL, despite Abela’s efforts to consolidate his leadership.
Judicial Interference Allegations: More Trouble for Abela
The political turbulence surrounding Abela has been exacerbated by allegations of interference in the judicial process, which have further undermined public trust in his government. Reports have surfaced suggesting that Abela exerted influence over sensitive legal proceedings, a claim he has vehemently denied. However, the delays in these denials have raised suspicions and added to the perception that Abela’s government may be meddling in Malta’s justice system—a serious charge that could erode support from moderate and undecided voters.
The Road Ahead: Can Labour Recover?
The MaltaToday poll will almost certainly serve as a wake-up call for Abela and his administration. Labour’s once-impenetrable dominance under Joseph Muscat now seems a distant memory, and Abela faces an uphill battle to restore unity within his party and regain voter trust. While recent internal changes have introduced fresh contenders like Ian Borg, Alex Agius Saliba, and Alex Sciberras into Labour’s leadership, many insiders believe the real problem—the man at the top—remains.
As the PL heads into a critical election period, the question is whether Abela can steady the ship, or whether Labour will be forced to consider a leadership change if it hopes to avoid an electoral disaster.
